Failing Thursday – Russell Leads Us Lower

April 30, 2015 at 08:31 AM EDT

Divergence! After making a mighty break from the pack in March to run up with the Nasdaq for a month, the Russell has now fallen back and is, in fact, leading us lower – failing to hold the 50-day moving average yesterday by just a half a point. But it was a very significant half a point since this is the first time any index has failed to hold the line in a month . This morning the Russell Futures (/TF) are at 1,235, which is up $2,000 per contract from where we called the short in Tuesday morning's post (you're welcome) as well as our Live Trading Webinar , where we demonstrated the shorts on the Russell and the S&P (/ES Futures), which are down from 2,107 to 2,092 for a 15-point gain at $50 per point, per contract (+$750) and you are welcome again! 1,230 is the 2.5% line on the Russell, according to our fabulous 5% Rule™, which we discussed in great detail in this morning's Live Member Chat Room regarding the S&P's past and future inflection points. There's not going to be much support for /TF (Russell Futures) between 1,230 and 1,200 (another $3,000 per contract if you catch that move) and, since we've fallen all the way from 1,275 we're looking for a weak bounce to 1,239 (call it 1,240) and a stronger one to 1,250 and we're not going to be impressed by less than 1,250 at tomorrow's close. Anything below that and we stay bearish into the weekend and, meanwhile, we'll be looking to see if our other indexes are going to confirm the Russell's slide. Nasdaq is now our lone high-flyer at 5,024 and you know 5,000 (25% over the Must Hold with AAPL providing 15% of it – up from $75 to $130 since last year) must hold up to impress us. The S&P, like the Nasdaq less AAPL, is up 14% at 2,110 but, as we noted, the /ES Futures, which predict the June 30th finish, are already down to 2,095 – also bouncing along the 50 dma at 2,090 – a very precarious position. …

Divergence!

After making a mighty break from the pack in March to run up with the Nasdaq for a month, the Russell has now fallen back and is, in fact, leading us lower – failing to hold the 50-day moving average yesterday by just a half a point. But it was a very significant half a point since this is the first time any index has failed to hold the line in a month.

This morning the Russell Futures (/TF) are at 1,235, which is up $2,000 per contract from where we called the short in Tuesday morning's post (you're welcome) as well as our Live Trading Webinar, where we demonstrated the shorts on the Russell and the S&P (/ES Futures), which are down from 2,107 to 2,092 for a 15-point gain at $50 per point, per contract (+$750) and you are welcome again!

1,230 is the 2.5% line on the Russell, according to our fabulous 5% Rule™, which we discussed in great detail in this morning's Live Member Chat Room regarding the S&P's past and future inflection points.

There's not going to be much support for /TF (Russell Futures) between 1,230 and 1,200 (another $3,000 per contract if you catch that move) and, since we've fallen all the way from 1,275 we're looking for a weak bounce to 1,239 (call it 1,240) and a stronger one to 1,250 and we're not going to be impressed by less than 1,250 at tomorrow's close.

Anything below that and we stay bearish into the weekend and, meanwhile, we'll be looking to see if our other indexes are going to confirm the Russell's slide. Nasdaq is now our lone high-flyer at 5,024 and you know 5,000 (25% over the Must Hold with AAPL providing 15% of it – up from $75 to $130 since last year) must hold up to impress us. The S&P, like the Nasdaq less AAPL, is up 14% at 2,110 but, as we noted, the /ES Futures, which predict the June 30th finish, are already down to 2,095 – also bouncing along the 50 dma at 2,090 – a very precarious position.

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